When not to run

You don't have to run for office. Sometimes you have to say no, I'm not going to do it, for a number of reasons. Perhaps the time isn't right for you. Perhaps the seat isn't right. Maybe you just cannot win, no matter what, because you're a progressive Democrat and the seat is held by a popular moderate Democrat with no bad marks against him.

That was the case with the young woman who came into my office the other day, hoping to get my support for her run for State Senate against the popular moderate Democrat incumbent. Only she wasn't even a Democrat. She used to be a Democrat. She ran to be a Bernie delegate and almost made it last year, but not quite. She also ran for this seat last year and came in third behind the Republican in the Primary with 13 % of the vote. This year she wants to energize millennials, not spend any of her own money (she spent a total of $3000 last time and most of that was filing fees), and raise $25,000. The winner raised $600,000.

No, she is now a "No Party Preference" voter. In this Democratic district, you need to make a commitment. You'll never get the unions, certainly not any Democratic endorsements.

"Why not stay in the fold, run as a progressive Democrat, " I offer her helpfully. "We are improving the Party. We can't do it from the outside. We can't do it if young people jump ship and make their mantra of "they are all the same" come true by their own actions."

"Don't run for Senate," I say. "Run for something smaller, school board maybe. So much easier to do, so much more in line with your background (educator, mother of a school age child), and as a young person yourself, it's a natural fit." Or get appointed to a board or commission in your town. Learn the ropes. Get some political experience under your belt.

And then, if she is successful, she might try for City Council in a couple of years. And so forth. This seat could be hers if she bothered to lay the groundwork. Just not this year. This gal is barely 30 years old for heaven's sake. She has plenty of time. She is so very sweet, very earnest, but that just isn't enough. Nor are her visionary politics, which I happen to agree with, but which do not answer the question, "What are you going to do for me?" which is on every voter's lips, whether they know it or not.

But this young woman is hell bent on being a sacrificial lamb. (Only doesn't know it herself.) She seems to really believe she can win with her $25,000 which she'll probably never raise. I do admire her spunk, but  all she will do is burn through her contacts, her friends, what supporters she has, and be left feeling bitter. I've seen it a million times. As she left my office, she asked for a hug.

Sweet, but no clue.

Don't be that person. 

And if you think I am talking about you, you are not the only one. And it's not just young people either. Think about it. Or as my mother always said, "Look before you leap."

Election Day

Today is Election Day in several states, chief among them California.  Do not stay home because your TV says Clinton has locked up the nomination. Remember this simple truth. Super Delegates do not vote until the Democratic National Convention in July. They may have pledged to vote for Hillary, but some of them may change their mind. They are allowed to. They are actually considered Unpledged delegates until the Convention. If their States vote for Bernie, they may go with their constituents.

In any event, there are other important races on your ballot. Read it. See if there are Supervisor or County Commissioner races; City Council or School Board seats; How about judges, special districts?

Are there ballot initiatives for bonds, advisory measures? All those are important. They may determine the future of your County, City or Town. Your State. In California, we have important primary races for State Senators and Assembly people. We have a primary in the all important election to replace our wonderful retiring Senator Barbara Boxer. Big shoes to fill. You deserve a say.

Whoever you are supporting, get out there and vote for them. Do it now. The lines are long.

And by the way, if you are a No Party Preference vote-by-mail voter, and have not turned in your ballot yet, and want to vote in the Democratic Primary, you can still do so. Ask for a Democratic ballot at your local polling place, and relinquish your mail in ballot.

Those "No Party Preference" Voters - What do they want?

I attended a conference yesterday at the Institute for Government Studies at UC Berkeley. It consisted of three panels, one academics who gave off a decidedly right of center flavor, although it was hard to get their gist, with tiny graphs on the screen, and their continual use of the word "moderate" as if that is necessarily a good thing.

The theme of the conference was the Top-Two primary in California. Has it changed the political landscape, how and why?

 

The Top-Two and other factors influencing voting patterns

 

First off, what is a top-two primary? It means the top two vote getters, no matter what party they belong to, face off in November, which often leads to two Democrats in blue districts or two Republicans in red districts. 

Secondly, other newly enacted factors influence the patterns of voting as well, such as the open primary, where any voter can vote for any candidate in the primary, no mater the party of the voters, and the 2010 redistricting, which changed the make-up of many of our State and Federal districts.

They seem to think, although it is really too early to tell, it has, in that legislators, mostly Democrats, have "moderated" their voting patterns. They seemed to think this was a good thing, as opposed to, say, polarization, which is a bad thing in anyone's mind.

However, without defining their terms, who knows just what moderate means. Looking at voting patterns, it seems to mean wimpy. Democrats, even with a two thirds majority, are having a tough time getting legislation passed. Why? Because some of the more "moderate" Dems elected in the last cycle either vote against some of the most progressive bills, or abstain from voting altogether.

 

That M word: Money

No one on the first panel mentioned the influence of corporate money pouring into these campaign to elect the moderate Democrats as a factor in this new behavior. 

Yours truly did bring it up during question and answer time, and they said, "interesting, yes, that could be a factor."

 

Panel number two was more balanced and in touch with the real world, consisting of campaign operatives, including a Democratic pollster, two Rep consultants and one Dem consultant.

They saw the money issue as big, forcing the Dems to spend heavily in the primary to protect their incumbents, even in safe seats, thereby leaving less for the Party to spend in Dem on Rep elections in swing Districts.

 The No Party Preference Voter 

 

And then there is the issue of the No Party Preference Voter, (formerly known as Decline to State, or DTS, maybe they didn't like the association of those initials with the tremors experienced by people undergoing alcohol withdrawal). The Dem pollster said, "They just don't vote in primaries."

 

Later, a professor type, himself a NPP,presented charts and graphs showing that more than one third the population now identifies as NPP. "This group," he said, "They're all confused."

When I asked him where this group came from, former members of other parties or new voters, and didn't he himself vote, he laughed and couldn't answer the question.

Tell me what YOU think

So, if anyone reading this is a NPP voter, tell me, what made you register that way, and do you vote in primary elections, now that you can vote for candidates from any party, and if so, what motivates you? And if not, why not?