Yard Signs, Again, Ad Nauseum

Here we go again. More information we already knew about yard signs. But go ahead, waste your campaign dollars. But try keeping it to under 2 percent of the budget please:

(From the Washington Post - The Fix) 

Sorry campaign managers: Lawn signs are only 98.3 percent useless.

By Philip Bump December 29, 2015 Email the author

Volunteer Corey Essler holds a sign for Rick Santorum, Monday, in Menasha, Wis. in 2012. (AP)

 

No one loves lawn signs more than political candidates. Political candidates love lawn signs because 1. They love seeing their name around, 2. They assume that the number of lawn signs they see somehow correlates to the level of support they enjoy and 3. They know that campaigns have lawn signs, and candidates are biased toward mimicking what winning candidates have done. Between 1984 and 2012, according to one study, use of lawn signs in campaigns quadrupled.

The problem with lawn signs, as any campaign manager would probably tell you, is that they are expensive, annoying, logistically tricky to distribute and — most importantly — don’t seem to do much of anything. Candidates like to feel as if they’re winning. Campaign managers like to know that they’re winning or at least making progress. So campaign managers like things that have either measurable effects on voters (like identifying targeted supporters) or demonstrated past effects (like advertising). Lawn signs don’t fit into either category. To a campaign manager, lawn signs are similar to randomly handing out fliers at a grocery store: a waste of time, money and energy.

Now there’s data out that, in the main, proves campaign managers right. Last October, we spoke with Donald Green, a professor at Columbia University who has done decades of work assessing the utility of various methods of voter outreach. He's also the lead author of a study released this month that evaluates the efficacy of lawn signs. Green partnered with researchers at universities in Upstate New York, Pennsylvania and Virginia to test signs in four races at the federal, state and local level.

Cutting to the chase: “[I]t appears that signs typically have a modest effect on advertising candidates’ vote shares — an effect that is probably greater than zero but unlikely to be large enough to alter the outcome of a contest that would otherwise be decided by more than a few percentage points.” The effect of such signs, the study suggests, is about the same as direct mail.

Of the researchers’ four experiments, only one involved what you might generally think of as yard signs. In three of the experiments, signs were placed in public places within randomly assigned precincts. In the fourth, signs were placed in supporters’ yards — the thing that campaigns often spend a lot of time coordinating. In that case, interestingly, the effects were essentially zero. Aggregated, the four experiments suggested that there was a 1.7 percentage-point boost to the candidate from the signs -- with a standard error of 0.7 percentage points. (In precincts adjacent to the targeted ones, there was a slightly smaller benefit.)

(Green, et. al.)

(The study included a sign, at right, paid for by FreedomWorks and used in the most recent Virginia gubernatorial election, which unfortunately misspelled the name of the state.)

In how many races would that sort of lawn-sign bump make a difference? Of 6,000-plus general and primary elections in House and Senate races between 2006 and 2012, only 2.2 percent of races were within 1.7 percentage points, according to our analysis of initial results. In other words, this could matter in 1-in-50 races.

The study also offers a result that candidates will love and campaign managers will hate. The effect is very small, but it would be hard for a campaign manager who's arguing for robust get-out-the-vote efforts to say no to a candidate who demands lawn signs in order to boost his margins. The silver lining is that the study suggests that the much-easier distribution of lawn signs in random public places is more effective than finding supporters and plunking signs in their yards.

But when have candidates ever sat down and considered the political science before making judgment calls in close races? Superstition dictates lawn signs, and candidates are the ones raising the money and putting their name on the ballot. The study would essentially have had to demonstrate that candidates who used them lost before a candidate would have second thoughts about the efficacy of lawn signs. And even then, he'd probably still buy them.

Running a Campaign? Seven tips for Success

After the Democratic National Convention, a number of Bernie delegates decided to put their money where their mouth was, and get the political revolution going, by running for office themselves. Here are some tips for those of you who are in that category or any new candidate taking the plunge:


1. Be sure the office you are running for is the one for you. It's too late now, because for any office with an incumbent in it, today's the day to sign up. (If there's no candidate, you until the 16th to make that fateful decision.) Either way, you need to research the office. Is this the right one for you? Does the office match your skill set and interests? If you are a parent with small children, a school board seat may be more suited to you than the City Council, at least as a starting place. Running for County Supervisor or State Assembly member, takes a lot more know how and financial wherewithal, than a smaller office, such as community service district, sanitary district or water board. But serving in on of these small offices can equip you with the tools and understanding to move up in your next race.

2.  How much will this race cost and how will I raise the money needed? Look at past races. What have people paid to win these elections? Can you raise the money needed from your circle of family, friends, colleagues, political connections?  Start making a list of who you can go to first to get the early money needed, for the filing statement , for a handout that lists your main talking points and issues in the campaign. Look around for who has given before. You can get that information on the campaign financial statements on file at the local elections office, or at cal-access, the Secretary of State's financial disclosure section. You may be shocked to learn how much your particular race will cost. And remember, you will be spending a lot of time asking for money. Start practicing now.  It's the personal touch that counts, not so much a go fund me page. People want to hear from the candidate, to ask their questions and satisfy themselves you can do the job, before they commit their cold hard cash.

3.  Know the competition. Is there an incumbent? If so, make sure you can tell people why they should fire that person and hire you for the job instead. You must do your homework, and know why you are the better choice, and be able to convey that message in 30 seconds. That's your elevator speech. If there's no incumbent, your job just got easier, but if there is any opposition at all, make sure you can convince people you have what it takes to do the job you are asking them to vote for you to do. And do it better than the other guy.

4. How to answer that often asked question: "Why are you running for [this office]?" The question really being asked is "What can you do for me?" That's what the voters, and any potential endorsers and donors, want to know. It's not a matter of quid pro quo. You wouldn't want people to vote for you so you can do them favors. But how is your election going to make life better? Improve the school system? Keep water rates low and quality high? Keep County or City government accessible and listen to their concerns when meetings of public importance are held.

5. Seek out competent staff and volunteers. You will at the very least need someone to help you keep track of where you have to be when, who has donated, getting those thank you notes out in time, remembering names of voters and important people you are interacting with, and raising money.  Ideally you will have a Kitchen Cabinet, those experts who can keep you informed on issues that you will be asked about; someone to create your handouts and mail pieces; volunteers to walk precincts and make calls on your behalf. No matter how many great ideas you have for getting things done, you need to let the voters know, and this all costs money. Social media is great, but even that must be kept up to date and someone must ensure your email blasts and news is getting out to right people.

6. Engage the help of a campaign consultant, even if it's just a short workshop to make sure you have all your ducks in a row, you aren't reinventing the wheel when there are tried and true methodologies of running a campaign. My firm GreenDog Campaigns often holds workshops with candidates just to get them launched with the tools needed to be competitive. Ask others who have run before for referrals and suggestions.

7. Plan to spend the next three months in campaign immersion mode. Go to every event you can. Plan a kick-off. Start calling people for money and for endorsements. Get someone to set up a good website, have pictures taken of yourself, with family, with voters, in the environment. Get a good pair of walking shoes, and plan to eat a lot of pizza.  Good luck with your first campaign, and even if you don't win this time, if you lay a solid foundation, and make a credible showing, you'll be a good position for another run in the future. Good luck!

Some resources: Besides archives of this blog, there are a few online resources that have articles and tips for the new candidate. Try some of these:   

Down Ticket Dems
DYI Campaigns
Campaigns and Elections Magazine
Winning Elections Magazine

The Campaign Consultant deconstructed

What is a campaign consultant? Is it the person who will hand you a brilliant strategy to win your race? Is it someone who pulls amazing slogans out the air or who creates stunning TV ads that you look as though you walk on water?

Or is it the person who guides you through grueling debates that allow you to excoriate your opponent and come off like a charming, friendly, tough but compassionate political whiz?

Your consultant is a little bit of all of these, but more than anything else, she is an interpreter.

She helps interpret your values, goals and message for the voters to understand. She helps you express yourself to the average person on the street so that you, not the consultant, are perceived as someone the voters trust with the business of government.

You may be the most capable person in the world, up to speed on all the issues, with great progressive values, and ideas for helping the common person. But if you cannot get those ideas out to the voters, you  don't stand a chance of ever getting in to the position of putting your ideas into action.

Why? Because you need to get your ideas across to the voters. Most will not attend debates, even if you are a skilled orator. They will not learn of your policies, unless your opponent is telling them about you in less than flattering terms with the help of his own consultant.You need to make sure the voters see and understand your lessage.

And for that you need a consultant, to help you on the unfamiliar back roads of your campaign, finding your way and communicating with those you meet. You need to translate your ideas into visual aids that will inform the voter, mail, doorhangers, TV ads, as well as make sure they understand the importance of you, and not the other guy, being on the school board, on the city council or in the State Assembly, whatever office it is you are running for.

So think of your consultant as your interpreter and your tour guide. Conducting a campaign is like a trip to a foreign land, one where you don't know the language but need desperately to communicate with the locals. Choose wisely when picking someone to help guide you on the way and provide the tools to allow you to engage in valuable two-way conversations with the people you meet.

Slow Vote

Excuses for not voting - or voting "fast"

I can't tell you the number of times I've heard people say "I couldn't decide how to vote on (school board, sewer board, water board, community services district or other down ballot race), so I just voted for the first name. That probably wasn't a good idea is it?"

Or they say "I couldn't decide who to vote for on (down ballot race) so I left it blank. Guess I should have done some homework."

Or "I didn't know who to vote for, but I've seen signs around town for (candidate so-and-so) so I just went with him. At least he went out and bought signs."

Or "I didn't vote for (so-and-so) because they called me during dinner. I never vote for someone who calls during dinner." And then they find out the guy who won, the other guy, may not have called them during dinner, but he isn't going to be looking out for their, or the district's, best interests either. 

You've heard all the excuses people have for either not voting, or leaving part of their ballot blank or voting because they saw a sign. the person was the incumbent or they had the same name as their aunt in Bakersfield. Well I have an antidote for that. I call it "Slow Vote" and I got the inspiration from a column in the S.F. Chronicle this week by Caille Millner on "Slow Reading."

Slow Vote

And she got the idea from the Slow Food movement. Slow reading is like taking your time to really read something, a book with substance that makes you think, something you can get real meaning out of, instead of skimming headlines or googling articles on topics of passing interest. Millner didn't invent Slow Reading; she heard about from other articles and just connected with it in a personal way. It made enough of an impression her to dedicate one of her weekly columns to it.

Millner learned that studies have shown that slow reading makes real differences in people's lives. A study published in Science showed that "reading literary fiction makes people more insightful and empathetic, a study in Neurology last year showing that reading helped elderly people avoid memory loss.."

So I had my own little brainstorm and thought "Slow Voting!" or "Slow Vote" (it just sounds better).

With Slow Vote, voters will actually take the time to learn about the candidates on the ballot, not just those at the top of the ticket but the down ballot races too. They will do more than watch the TV ads which are often negative and misleading.

They will do more than glance at the mail from the candidates on the way to the recycling bin. They will do more than see who the local newspaper endorsed.

They will read articles about the candidates from more than one news source. They will attend candidate forums and neighborhood coffees to meet the candidate personally and ask in-depth questions. They will read the campaign mail, all of it, from all sides, even the smaller print underneath the glowing bullet points.

Ideally, they would examine the reports made periodically to the Fair Political Practices Commission to see who has given how much money in each  race.

Will it work?

I'm a campaign consultant, I deal in bullet points and sound bites. When my clients show me their detailed plan for ending homelessness, preserving the environment or improving the District's budget, I distill it into easy to digest large print headlines and dramatic scripted scenes for mail and electronic ads.

But I'd rather send voters the whole package. Show them how smart my client is; how well though out her proposals are (assuming, that is, that they are well thought out and actually accomplishable).

But will it work? Probably not in the foreseeable future. So keep looking for mailers, RV ads and robo calls.  But do read the fine print, especially the disclaimers on the TV ads (if you can; they tend to go by pretty darned fast), and become as informed as you can be before you vote this November.

Take a deep breath and vote slow.

What we talk about when we talk about viability

Here's a dirty little secret of the campaign world. Specifically of those who endorse candidates for elective office.

They will send you questionnaires by the boatload. They will grill you on your positions on all the issues they care about. They will ask about your background and experience and judge how well you present yourself. They may tell you they are mightily impressed with your credentials.

Then they will ask about your viability. That's Viability, spelled M-O-N-E-Y. Yes, money is what they want to know about. How much of it do you have? How much can you raise? And how much do you need to win your election.

If the equation comes out lopsided, that is you don't have enough, or as much as the other guy, they are likely to decide your candidacy is not viable. Say bye bye to that endorsement you know you were most suited to receive.

And you thought it was all about qualifications to do the job, integrity and a willingness to work hard.

Sorry, Charlie, it's all about the money. It's a self-fulfilling prophecy. If the key organizations don't endorse you because you don't have the money, you can't get the money from those who are waiting to see what the endorsers do. 

Nobody wants to back a loser, and they're not willing to take a chance on you by helping your campaign get off the ground with their endorsement and the contribution that usually goes with it.

And so it goes. This is how we get second rate candidates in office, who are beholden to special interests. They take the money from all and sundry, thereby looking "viable" to the endorsers.

They get the endorsement. They win the race, and then people are surprised when those they elected get caught in messy "pay to play" schemes, and are forced to leave their positions prematurely to "spend more time with their families."

Back on the Trail

You'd think we hadn't been doing much (because I haven't been writing much) but we have been busy on some campaigns. This season is a hot one, with campaigns all over the North Bay map. Sonoma, Marin, Solano, Napa, Yolo, Lake Counties.

So now it's juggling candidates and their various nees.

Most candidates need a few basics:

• A remit envelope to get checks, endorsements and offer to volunteer
• A website to list their isues, bios and endorsers
• A walk piece or handout to leave with the people they meet on the campaign trail
• Some social media
• A letter to potential supporters to solicit funds and ask for help
• A data base to keep track of endorsers, donors and volunteers
• A telephone - to call potential donors for campaign contributions
• A good campaign message
• A good campaign message delivery system - mailers, tv and radio, speeches and more

And a few good people:

• A campaign consultant to make sure these things are in the works and on schedule
• A campaign manager to make sure the candidate is on time, knows where to be, handles the press and other issues and act as chief cheerleader and nag
• A treasurer to handle the finances and file reports on time
• A field coodinator to handle the volunteers and oversee precinct walking and phone banking to voters
• Volunteers to do all of the above and more

You could always use a fundraiser, a data base manager and some gofers to help it all run smoothly, but know this - You, the candidate, must be the one to sell yourself, make the phone calls for contributions, meet the voters, go to debates and answer the questionnaires. Your staff, volunteers and friends and family can all help, but ultimately, You are the salesforce.

Oh, yeah, take a few moments to breathe each day and maybe once a week or so, kiss your family.  It will all be over soon and you'll be in office or back at your day job. either way, you'll have had a real adventure with lots of stories to tell.

Campaign Tip of the Day: Less is More

Big type

Bullets

Pictures


White Space

'Nuff said

Silly Season has begun

It's almost Labor Day, when campaign season officially begins, but any serious candidate has been working all summer, getting their team into place, raising money, testing messages on friendly audiences, hiring consultants and staff, or just lining up volunteers, endorsements and donors for the fall push.

There are no "big" races on this off-year ballot. But in this business, all races are big, no matter the scope of the office. For instance, in a local sewer board race, as reported in the last Campaign Slut blog post, the louts are out already, denouncing the very real possibility that a female majority may be elected this year.

Yes, this is nearly 100 years since women got the right to vote. But it is 41 years since the Equal Rights Amendment was passed by Congress, and that (equal rights for women, oh scary!) has never been ratified by the States. If we don't start electing more women, and yes, some female majorities in some jurisdictions, will we ever attain full equality? The answer to that, I fear, is obvious.

What we get, instead, is more and more male legislators behaving badly, Republican and Democrat alike. The jury is still out on whether Eliot Spitzer, can make a political comeback after the infamous "Client No. 9" scandal, while others like serial "sexter" Anthony Weiner and Bob Filner do not even have the good grace to look chagrined. (Yes, Filner resigned under pressure, but managed to get the City to pay his legal fees, which I'm sure he thought was the least they could do for him, poor baby).

It's no wonder they call it "Silly Season."  And it's no wonder, fewer women than men run. Even though it has been proven time and again that when women do run for office, they win in the same proportions as the men. And, very few of them, if any, have their political careers derailed by scandal. 

Go ahead and Google it; I found none, nada, zilch, at least that were worth reporting. When enough women run, female majorities will no longer be the exception. We are more than 50% of the population. And who know, with more women in office, maybe dignity and respect will return to the job?

So is it any wonder the men are afraid to see female majorities? It may mean playtime is about to be over.

You May be a Winner!

Yes, you may be a winner, but not if you don't run. Women, I'm talking to you.  With such dismal statistics on women in office (see Campaign Slut June 5, 2013), it's time more of you ran.

Because when women run,women win! (See Campaign Slut March 26, 2013). So, you're wondering, moi? Yes, You, chickie.  Think about it.

Here are a few questions to ask yourself to find out just how ready you might be:


Before you can make a successful bid for public office, you have to ask yourself several key questions.  Among them are the ones below, complied from my experience running local campaigns for the past 12 years. Having the answers to these questions early as well as having some good backing among your friends, colleagues and “movers and shakers” in the District, will give you a good foundation and head start on the November election.

1. What office do I want to run for?

2. Why do I want that office?

3. Am I prepared to spend the amount of money time to mount a serious campaign?

4. Why would I be better than the other candidates or the incumbent?

5. Do I have the time and the interest to do the job once I am elected?

            If you can’t answer these questions to your satisfaction, you may not be ready for a campaign just yet.

            So let’s go over them one at a time:

1.  What office do I want to run for?

            If you have done your homework, you know which offices in your community are coming up for election in the near future.  Some of the offices like County Supervisor, State Assembly or Senate, pay a salary, differing by locality. Others like City Council (except for very large municipalities like Los Angeles , New York or Chicago) may pay a small stipend and that’s all. Some pay nothing at all and you are expected to bear your own costs for attending conference and so forth.

            If this is your first run, you may want to start small, at the local level, running for a school board, if that is your interest, or maybe a local water or sanitary district.  There are often issues involving these kinds of entities that can be quite interesting and challenging.  For instance, a local sanitary district turned over their operations to a giant private corporation, a move that attracted both a number of new candidates and a referendum to undue the turnover.

2. Why do I want to run for this office?

            This question is obviously related to the first one.  Most people get into public life because of a pressing issue in their community that they want to change or help succeed.  If you have kids in school, you will naturally care about decisions made by the local school board.   Is the City Council too lenient with development or does it ignore the needs of the neighborhoods?  That might spur you to run for office, to try to make a difference that will affect your life.

3. Am I prepared to spend the amount of money and time it will take to mount a serious campaign?

            This is a key question in deciding to run for any public office. No matter how lowly the position or how small the District you are running in, you will need to raise and spend some funds for printing, mail, party supplies for your kick off, pizza for the phone volunteers.  And it will take time.  If you plan on a grassroots campaign, be prepared to knock on a lot of doors, make a lot of phone calls, and maybe even spend some time standing at the local supermarkets and farmer’s markets, meeting and greeting voters.

            And depending on how competitive the race is, be ready to polish up your public speaking skills when you address various interest groups, the local Rotary Clubs or even give your pitch on the radio or community TV station. 

4. Why would I be better than the other candidates or the incumbent?

            You will need a persuasive message and part of that message is why the voter should vote for you instead of the other person.  If you are running against an incumbent, this is the most crucial question you need to answer.  If you can’t tell the voters what the incumbent is doing wrong and why you are the one who can do it right, you might as well stop right now before wasting any time or money. 

            Many first time candidates are nervous about seeming to be “negative.” They want the campaign to be all about the issues and can talk endlessly about their vision for the town, or the district.  But you must convince the voters not only that your vision is the right one but that the incumbent does not share it.

            It helps if there is a big issue connected to the race.  In a local race for County Supervisor in coastlaw California, the development of a tract of land between the freeway and the Bay was at issue.  Developers were salivating over it, while the populace wanted to preserve it for open space, and to keep the already horrific traffic manageable.

            One candidate received a good portion of his campaign funds from developers and real estate interests and appeared somewhat ambivalent on the issue. The other one took a decisive stand against the development. Although she started out as a complete unknown, that issue carried the day and she won. 

           

            One tactic she used was to send a piece of mail that simply listed all the contributions the other candidate received, alongside a graphic depiction of the proposed development.  That mail, a TV spot showing traffic congestion and a lot of shoe leather carried the day.

            In a neighboring county, the challenger to an incumbent supervisor uncovered misuse of funds, as well as a neglect of serious problems the county was facing. She sent a comparison piece showing the different approach she would take to these matters, and won easily on Election Day. 

5. Do I have the time and the interest to do the job once I am elected?

            Make sure you really want this job and are not just interested in making a point.  You will give up quiet evenings at home with the family to attend meetings, review documents, attend conferences and meet the public.  A lot of the work is routine, no matter how lofty the office, and you, and your family, must be ready to make sacrifices.

            Many citizens get all fired up when they are running, with great plans to change the way business is done or bring in innovative policies and find they can’t get it all done at once, or that much more of the job than they realized consists of approving minor remodels, or discussing personnel issue than it does championing good government and sweeping reforms.  They get discouraged and end up one term legislators disappointing the public and their volunteers who worked so hard to get them elected in the first place.

            Of course, life is not predictable and there are many legitimate reasons for deciding not to run again, ranging from health issues, family necessity, change in job to a genuine dislike of being in the public eye.  

OK, you made the decision, now the work begins.

            Congratulations, you made the decision to run; now the work begins.  Make sure you know when the filing deadline is, usually 90 days before the election. Are there contribution limits in your race?  Your first task will be to file some forms, get a treasurer on board, and then start thinking about your campaign statement for the ballot.

           

            You might start attending meetings of the Board you are running for if you haven’t already.  Watch how they do things, what alliances exist, who you might count on as an ally. 

            Scope out the field to determine who else might be running in your race.  Ask people you trust who are involved in local politics what they think of you running. Will they support you?  Give money, actively volunteer? Start calling your friends and family for important early financial support.  Get your Facebook page up to date and send out that first press release announcing your run.  

            Then, win or lose, you can be sure you will have an interesting, challenging but ultimately rewarding experience.