Big Upset of Upstarts in France

Here is a post lifted from today's London Guardian on the stunning Parliamentary wins in France of the new Party of Emmanuel Macron, elected President last month. This win seems to solidify the power of his new centrist Party, La République en Marche, to the chagrin of the Socialists and Labor. At least the ultra-Right National Front of Marine Le Pen suffered a solid defeat. Where this all leads I don't know. But here is the Guardian's take on it so far. Next round of voting soon.

Editorial

France has given its new president an impressive extra mandate. The contrast with the political chaos in Britain is painful

Fortunate car drivers may be familiar with the “green wave”, in which a sequence of traffic lights are coordinated so that each conveniently turns to “go” just as the vehicle approaches. To judge by the first round of France’s parliamentary elections on Sunday, Emmanuel Macron seems to have invented the green wave’s political equivalent.

In the 10 months since he launched his meteoric political career, Mr Macron’s radical centrist project has found every traffic light of the many that might have blocked his path on green. If next week’s second round confirms Sunday’s results, the French president and his new party will have secured an overwhelming parliamentary mandate for his reform agenda. Theresa May, who will sit next to Mr Macron at the Stade de France on Tuesday evening for a football match, can only look on with drooling envy.

At the start of this year, Mr Macron’s fledgling party La République en Marche did not even exist. Now it is projected to win between 400 and 450 seats out of the 577 in France’s national assembly. In Sunday’s first round, La REM finished first in the majority of seats and came far ahead of its nearest rival in terms of national share of the vote. This sweeping success is one of the largest in the history of the Fifth Republic. Yet it has been achieved not by one of the well established parties or blocs but by a new movement, half of whose candidates had never stood for public office before. In some respects this is an even more formidable achievement of mobilisation than Mr Macron’s success a month ago.

It is significant that more than half of French voters failed to go to the polls on Sunday. Turnout was a mere 49%, compared with 78% for the first round of the presidential election at the end of April. Yet this high rate of abstention needs to be interpreted with care. The Fifth Republic’s constitution has always elevated the president above the parliament. National wariness about political “cohabitation” – a president and parliament of competing parties – tends to be reflected in higher abstention on the opposition side, as on Sunday. And the French electorate may be suffering voter fatigue after a succession of primaries and presidential votes in recent months. To that extent, low turnout may not be as damaging in practice to Mr Macron and La REM as the numbers may imply.

For the moment, however, it is Mr Macron’s political opponents who are in disarray. France seems to be witnessing a process of dégagisme – of clearing out old parties and leaders. The left is deflated after the worst Socialist result in parliamentary elections since François Mitterrand refounded the party at the Épinay congress in 1971. The centre-right is deeply divided. Meanwhile the hard right Front National, which lost 4 million votes on Sunday compared with Marine Le Pen’s showing in the first round in April, now faces a gruelling internal conflict over its political direction, a battle that is likely to come to a head at its party conference in 2018.

Mr Macron is on course to win a decisive mandate. This is important not just for France itself but for the European Union. Germany’s willingness to help loosen the eurozone’s fiscal strictness will inevitably have to await the Bundestag elections in September. Yet Berlin will be under little pressure to act unless Mr Macron is seen to be credible as a reformer of France’s high-spending, high-unemployment economy. That depended upon the results in these elections. Signs of improving economic growth are yet another well-timed green light for Mr Macron.

The fact remains that three out of four French voters did not vote for Mr Macron in the first round in the presidential contest, while two out of three of those voting on Sunday did not support La REM either. This will certainly not prevent Mr Macron from getting his public spending plans and his labour market liberalisation proposals through parliament later this year. He will face challenges, perhaps including demonstrations and strikes, from the unions (with whom he has promised to consult over the summer) which will test the resolve and discipline of his tyro legislators. Plans to incorporate emergency anti-terror powers into the criminal code after the welcome ending of France’s 14-month state of emergency provide a further point of conflict. One day, Mr Macron will be faced with a red light. Seen from across the Channel, however, France’s quiet revolution of the centre appears an extraordinary and, in many ways enviable, contrast to the snarl-up in Britain.

California Democratic Party Chair Race Still Up in the Air

Wow, California! We just stepped up to the plate legislatively and passed single payer health care (in the Senate; it still has to be passed in the Assembly and signed by unpredictable Governor Brown). And that same Governor just stood up to Trump and said, "Do what you will, little man, California (along with Washington State and New York) are fighting climate change anyway." California is the world's 6th largest economy, and the US largest state. And it's a (mostly) solidly blue.

So why is our Democratic Party race for Chair such a conundrum? Almost two weeks after the election, we still don't know who the Chair is. The vote count showed Eric Bauman with 62 more votes than Kimberly Ellis. Then Kimberly asked to review the votes cast. Out of 2900 votes, a 62 vote difference is about 2%, slim enough to warrant checking. And close enough to show serious differences in our Party.

Bauman represents the mainstream, long time, inside politician. He's chair of the LA Democratic Party, works with the political committee of the Assembly, and heads a campaign consulting firm who last year got people in a tizzy over siding with big Pharma (and big bucks) over lower drug prices for consumers.

Kimberly Ellis is the long time executive director of Emerge California, a group that trains Democratic women to run for office. More progressive voters (some say "Berniecrats) tended to vote  for Ellis, while more mainline Party oriented Dems went with Bauman. (Bot supported Hillary Clinton in the June primary last year and several Progressive Caucus members voted for Bauman).

Today, we learn that the review has shown "alarming discrepancies and an amassing of ineligible voters to change the outcome of the election" and the Ellis campaign team is calling for an independent audit. Bauman is resisting. If all is on the up and up, why not have an independent outside source prove it? If not, there will be suspicions and hard feelings for years to come.

If we want transparency and any chance at unity, how can this hurt?

If You're a Woman, Hire a Female consulting Team

OK, this will sound like shameless self-promotion, and so what? I run a female owned campaign consulting company. We don't work exclusively for women, but we do work for and with a lot of women and issues that women care about, like education. We can be as tough as the guys, but we understand how o tell a story effectively. Women are good at that. If you are a woman candidate running in 2017 or 2018, check us out; check out other female owned firms too. There aren't that many. For some insight into this subject, see Why Female Consultants Matter Right Now by Kate Maeder in Campaigns and Elections Magazine.

Maybe there should be more?

There is still no substitute for mail

In this era of social media, snapchat, instagram, flash messaging, even Facebook is passe. Everyone's plugged in, turned on. Instant communications every minute of every day. But wait. How much of this grab and gone connections you never even think to ask, let alone get answers to.

Who's running for what seat and why? What are their issues? Why vote for this one instead of that one, and when is this election anyway??

Don't be someone to add to the clamor and confusion. Yes, use the tools available in social media, you'd be a fool not to and you might spark interest in potential donors, volunteers and voters.  But, do more. If possible, and the budget allows, mail is still the best way to get into every voter's home. Even if you mail, meeting voters in person and having a good-looking, bullet-pointed handout to take to people's doors and to leave whether they are home or not, is imperative.

You can't see every single voter though. Which is why you need something to leave at the door. It's a tangible reminder you're running, you care enough to knock on their door and what your issues are.

According to Campaign and Elections Magazine the shorter election time and limited spending in European elections make reliance on more digital communications a necessity. But take note, even in this recent French Presidential election, both candidates walked door to door. This is going to be a new trend.  We've been doing it for years. If your coffers are not big enough for TV ads, or much mailing, walk as much as you can, and make sure you have plenty of volunteers to help you.


And when you're walking, a good breakfast is important to keep you going all day. Here's a new/old recipe that is fast and protein filled to get you off to a good start:

CLOUD EGGS:

Thank Instagram for bringing back this old food fad: yolks surrounded in egg whites so fluffy, they resemble clouds.

Appropriately named cloud eggs, the weather-themed breakfast food has surged in popularity recently because they look so good in social media pictures. For weather geeks, it's an opportunity to enjoy a weather-themed meal, and we'll always be fine with that.
It turns out, cloud eggs aren't too difficult to prepare.

Here's what your cloud eggs should look like when they're done. 

First, separate the yolks from the egg whites and whip the whites until there's a foam, as if you're making a meringue, Framed Cooks said. That should take 2 to 3 minutes.
Then, arrange the egg whites in rounded cloud shapes on a baking sheet and form a hole in the middle. Bake the whites for three minutes, then add the yolks to the middle and bake for another 3 minutes.
Finally, scoop them onto a plate and enjoy, but be sure to get that perfect photo for Instagram first.
Cloud eggs aren't a phenomenon – an old French recipe that translates to "eggs in snow" dates back to 1651, Serious Eats culinary director Daniel Gritzer told NPR.

And if you need one more reason to try out this new method of egg preparation, the Coventry Telegraph says it's a fairly healthy option. Cloud eggs have just 160 calories and require no fat to prepare.

Election in France

Having been in France for the second round of Presidential election, and reading accounts of the two main campaigners, Le Pen of the right, and Macron of the "center," I think this about the Hillary vs. Drumpf campaign. She needed to go where he went, speak out about his lies about bringing back jobs; talk to the workers face to face; show him up for the phony blowhard he is. "No, he is not bringing back and mines, the steel industry, the manufacturing plants." He wants you for his suckers. Don't do it. I won't lie to you." It might have worked.

 

Also interesting to learn from New Yorker article: door to door campaigning a new thing in France. Macron did it, and I hear Le Pen did too. Something to watch in the Parliamentary elections in June.

 

What you eat in Paris on Election Night:

Fromages et vin

 

Brexit All Over

Theresa May is feuding with EU over the terms of Brexit. They want Britain to pay what it owes. Only after the trade deal is done says Terri.

No dice say the EUY 27. Standoff.

Thursday England's elections called for the charming Tory Terri. Apparently, most of the country agrees with her, as she holds popularity in the polls, even though Brexit was a squeaker, and lots of people have said, oh that's what it means. Hmmm. But Labour is unpopular and the delightfully mis-named Lib Dems are headed up by a gay-bashing Christian wanker. What to do?

Meanwhile, across the Channel, the French prepare for their polls on the 7th. No talk over here what they might be thinking, except today's Times says Macron leads in the French polls.

everyone is afraid of the Russians, except the Russian tourists who abound in the  theatre district, where we are staying in a 6th floor walk up, because the lift keeps breaking down. No, I won't be back anytime soon to this establishment anyway.

I have heard no talk about politics in any of the pubs or restaurants, or museum cafes, or queues anywhere.

The Moliere we saw had more current political palaver than in all of London that we've witnessed. But of course, we are the American tourists, who have the Drumpf as our leader, so we have nothing to say, except don't blame us, and save yourselves!

more later.

Campaign Francais

If you've been watching the news lately, you know that things in France are heating up, campaign wise. Marine LePen, the ultra right Trumpist candidate is squaring off against the centrist (but also right-leaning from what I understand) Emmanuel Macron on May 7th in a Presidential run-off. And I will be there.

Hopefully, blogging from there. Stay tuned. It ought to be a lively battle will Europe still be Europe if Le Pen wins or even if she doesn't? Partisans are everywhere.