Thursday, November 15, 2018

Last weekend

It's down to the wire. Robo calls are flooding the phones. Texts are clogging the cells. Hit pieces jumping out of mailboxes. Letters getting down and dirty and nitty and gritty. It's the last weekend of the campaign.

Nerve are frayed. Candidates' fingernails are torn. Managers are pulling out their hair. Volunteers pounding harder on doors, saying "Open up; we know you're in there." They think they are the Election Police.

This year is the worst I've seen in a while. Nationally and locally, tempers flare, and hopes rise and fall with the tide of public opinion and punditry.

Of course, we all know why. There's an orange scourge in the White House, TV's pulse with blood red news and snap with changing memes of the day.

Now its guns for rocks,

Now of course the election has come and gone, but isn't over as we watch a slow blue wave roll across the land. Happy for that; anxious waiting for my own races to be called here in California, the down ballot ones I worked on this cycle. A couple are clear winners, a couple probably winners, a couple nail bitingly close.

Waiting waiting.

Eating chocolate, drinking wine. Plus keep out of the smoke of the fires raging not that far away, and this is the middle of November. It's supposed to be raining. Can you say Climate Change?

Off to Cal. Dem. party Exec. Bd. meeting in Long Beach tomorrow.

More later.

Stay safe.

Monday, August 20, 2018

Perennial Sign Conundrum

To sign or not sign? Or How much to sign? How much to spend on signs?

And do they work? That is, do they persuade voters. I think the verdict is in on that one. No. They do not persuade the voters. They might, if you have done everything else right, walked precincts, phoned, and of course send three pieces of mail, the signs might help reinforce the name recognition as people go to the polls or think about filling in their absentee ballots.

But don't break the bank for signage. (And definitely leave swag, buttons, bumper stickers, cute pens and mugs alone!) Make sure your budget has enough for the all important getting out the message to voters components mentioned above, then think about signs.

If you do use signs, your name in your logo colors is all important, large enough to be seen. If you can, get a line of text big enough to read that conveys in shorthand something about you again as a reinforcer. Here is my favorite sign, double sided, big enough, contrasty enough, and with a double whammy endorsement message that matters.



Was this sign alone enough to get the candidate elected? No. But along with several pieces of mail, a strong phone bank and walk campaign and a heavy GOTV effort, the signs may have been that little bit of a reinforcer message to get some people to the polls who otherwise might have forgotten. They had to know the candidate first for that reinforcing message to mean anything at all.

That's the point. And it's the hardest one for candidates and their committees to take to heart. That and spending the requisite two hours a day on the phone raising money.

More abut that another time. And also in earlier posts. Check the index.

Sunday, July 29, 2018

Candidate Training!

It's that time again. Final filing deadlines loom for local elections. Running for office this year? or thinking about the next cycle? Consider a brief candidate training with a local organization. Many groups offer these nuts and bolts crash courses in running a campaign. Even Counties and Cities often have one on the financial aspects of the camping, correct filing of papers and keeping track of your finances for reporting, so you don't get into trouble.

There are some longer training programs as well, but these are costly and time consuming. Not to say they are not well worth the price. For instance, the Emerge, Democratic women's training course is nine weekends in as many months, and is all inclusive, with intensive tutorials and practice sessions on everything from fundraising to mail and media programs,.

The Marin Women's Political Action Committee is offering a 2 hour program that will try to point you in the right direction in many of these same areas. No, you won't learn everything. but you will have an idea of where to go, who to look to for help, and with our helpful handouts, be somewhat more prepared to tackle your campaign.

You will also meet fellow local candidates and elected officials, the editorial page writers of the local newspapers, who do endorse, and some campaign pros. All will be available to talk to you about your particular needs.

This event takes place at the McInnis Golf Club restaurant, 350 Mcinnis, San Rafael, on Tuesday, August 14, from 5:30 to 8:30. Dinner is provided as well, and there is some time for mingling beforehand and asking questions afterward. For $35 it is well worth the cost. And it's fun too!

Join us won't you, by rsvping at bmatas8139@aol.com  or online at www.mwpac.org  


Friday, June 29, 2018

Vote Dems Vote!

Time to talk about the Supreme Court. With Anthony Kennedy retiring the tRump slavering over his new pick, we could be looking down the barrel of a loaded rifle that will be firing away at civil rights, women's rights, gay rights,workers rights, not to mention the environment, immigration and whatever else you hold dear, for forty years or so. If we don't do something about it.

Now.

Elect Democrats in November. Wherever you are, stop what you're doing and get to a phone bank or fly to a District with a potentially winnable Congressional race. This is our task. No whining!

Of course, we'd love it if they were young, progressives like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who beat old-timer Joe Crowley, considered a favorite to be the next leader of the House Dems. Not so fast, Joe. He did graciously endorse her and even played a song for her on a guitar.

So, the old timers (and I are one) are moving aside to let the youngsters take over. Some of us old-timers are progressives don't forger. (Think Bernie). So i really don't see it as a generational thing, but more of it's time to be feisty, resist, fight back, solve problems and move forward with programs that actually help people.

Getting that message to voting public is the rub. All good ideas welcomed at this blog!

It's almost the Fourth of July! No firecrackers please; fire danger and you'll scare the dogs. But do indulge in some all American Strawberry Shortcake. Home made, with organic berries and cream of course. Put a few blueberries in there for a red, white and blue effect, if you wish.

 From Fine Cooking. Very yum!

Classic Strawberry Shortcake




Servings: 6
These biscuits get their light, tender texture from buttermilk and baking powder, and their rich flavor from an egg, cream, and lots of butter. This simple dessert is best made at the height of strawberry season, using the juiciest, sweetest strawberries you can find. Looking for more shortcake inspiration? See a slideshow of twists on this classic version, from chocolate biscuits to roasted berries.
Watch a video of Fine Cooking‘s Homegrown/Homemade team making this strawberry shortcake recipe.

Ingredients

For the strawberries

  • 1 lb. ripe strawberries, hulled (about 4 cups)
  • 2 Tbs. granulated sugar; more to taste

For the biscuits

  • 9 oz. (2 cups) unbleached all-purpose flour; more for rolling
  • 1/3 cup plus 1 Tbs. granulated sugar
  • 2-1/2 tsp. baking powder
  • 1/4 tsp. baking soda
  • 1/2 tsp. kosher salt
  • 4 oz. (1/2 cup) cold unsalted butter, cut into 1/2-inch pieces
  • 1 large egg
  • 1/4 cup heavy cream; more for brushing
  • 1/4 cup buttermilk

For the whipped cream

  • 1-1/2 cups heavy cream
  • 2 Tbs. granulated sugar

 Preparation

Prepare the strawberries

  • Put one-third of the berries in a medium bowl and, using a potato masher, crush them into a chunky purée. Slice the remaining berries 1/4 inch thick and stir them into the mashed berries along with the sugar. Taste the berries, adding more sugar if necessary. Let the berries sit at room temperature for at least 30 minutes.

Make the biscuits

  • Position a rack in the center of the oven and heat the oven to 425°F. Line a large heavy-duty baking sheet with parchment.Sift the flour, 1/3 cup of the sugar, the baking powder, and baking soda into a large bowl. Stir in the salt. Using a pastry blender, a fork, or your fingertips, work the butter into the dry ingredients until the mixture resembles coarse cornmeal.In a small bowl, beat the egg and heavy cream with a fork. Mix in the buttermilk. Make a well in the center of the flour mixture and pour in the cream mixture. Mix with the fork until the dough is evenly moistened and just comes together; it will still look a little shaggy. Gather the dough and gently knead it three or four times. If the dough seems dry and doesn’t form a cohesive mass, work in more cream, 1 tsp. at a time. Transfer the dough to a lightly floured surface and roll it into a 3/4 -inch-thick disk. With a sharp 2 1/2-inch biscuit cutter, press straight down to cut the dough into rounds and lift straight up to remove (don’t twist the cutter or it will seal the sides of the biscuits and interfere with rising). Transfer the rounds to the prepared baking sheet. Gather the dough scraps, gently knead them together, re-roll, and cut out more biscuits until you have a total of 6.
    Lightly brush the biscuit tops with cream (about 1 Tbs.) and sprinkle with the remaining 1 Tbs. sugar. Bake, rotating the baking sheet once, until the biscuit tops are lightly browned, 10 to 15 minutes. Let the biscuits cool slightly while you whip the cream.

Whip the cream

  • In a large, chilled metal bowl, whip the heavy cream and sugar to soft peaks with an electric hand mixer. (Use immediately or refrigerate, covered until ready to serve).

Assemble the shortcakes

  • Using a serrated knife, split the warm biscuits in half horizontally and transfer the bottoms to 6 dessert plates. Spoon about three-quarters of the macerated berries and their juice evenly over the biscuit bottoms. It’s OK if some of the berries spill out onto the plate. Top with a generous dollop of whipped cream and cover each with a biscuit top. Spoon more berries and cream over each shortcake and serve immediately.
Make Ahead Tips
The biscuits can be baked 10 to 12 hours ahead and reheated in a 350°F oven before serving. The strawberries can be macerated up to 2 hours ahead. The cream can be whipped up to 2 hours ahead and refrigerated, covered. If necessary, lightly rewhip before using.

Sunday, June 17, 2018

Yard Signs, Again, Ad Nauseum

Here we go again. More information we already knew about yard signs. But go ahead, waste your campaign dollars. But try keeping it to under 2 percent of the budget please:

(From the Washington Post - The Fix) 

Sorry campaign managers: Lawn signs are only 98.3 percent useless.


Volunteer Corey Essler holds a sign for Rick Santorum, Monday, in Menasha, Wis. in 2012. (AP)
 
No one loves lawn signs more than political candidates. Political candidates love lawn signs because 1. They love seeing their name around, 2. They assume that the number of lawn signs they see somehow correlates to the level of support they enjoy and 3. They know that campaigns have lawn signs, and candidates are biased toward mimicking what winning candidates have done. Between 1984 and 2012, according to one study, use of lawn signs in campaigns quadrupled.

The problem with lawn signs, as any campaign manager would probably tell you, is that they are expensive, annoying, logistically tricky to distribute and — most importantly — don’t seem to do much of anything. Candidates like to feel as if they’re winning. Campaign managers like to know that they’re winning or at least making progress. So campaign managers like things that have either measurable effects on voters (like identifying targeted supporters) or demonstrated past effects (like advertising). Lawn signs don’t fit into either category. To a campaign manager, lawn signs are similar to randomly handing out fliers at a grocery store: a waste of time, money and energy.

Now there’s data out that, in the main, proves campaign managers right. Last October, we spoke with Donald Green, a professor at Columbia University who has done decades of work assessing the utility of various methods of voter outreach. He's also the lead author of a study released this month that evaluates the efficacy of lawn signs. Green partnered with researchers at universities in Upstate New York, Pennsylvania and Virginia to test signs in four races at the federal, state and local level.

Cutting to the chase: “[I]t appears that signs typically have a modest effect on advertising candidates’ vote shares — an effect that is probably greater than zero but unlikely to be large enough to alter the outcome of a contest that would otherwise be decided by more than a few percentage points.” The effect of such signs, the study suggests, is about the same as direct mail.

Of the researchers’ four experiments, only one involved what you might generally think of as yard signs. In three of the experiments, signs were placed in public places within randomly assigned precincts. In the fourth, signs were placed in supporters’ yards — the thing that campaigns often spend a lot of time coordinating. In that case, interestingly, the effects were essentially zero. Aggregated, the four experiments suggested that there was a 1.7 percentage-point boost to the candidate from the signs -- with a standard error of 0.7 percentage points. (In precincts adjacent to the targeted ones, there was a slightly smaller benefit.)
(Green, et. al.) (Green, et. al.)
(The study included a sign, at right, paid for by FreedomWorks and used in the most recent Virginia gubernatorial election, which unfortunately misspelled the name of the state.)

In how many races would that sort of lawn-sign bump make a difference? Of 6,000-plus general and primary elections in House and Senate races between 2006 and 2012, only 2.2 percent of races were within 1.7 percentage points, according to our analysis of initial results. In other words, this could matter in 1-in-50 races.

The study also offers a result that candidates will love and campaign managers will hate. The effect is very small, but it would be hard for a campaign manager who's arguing for robust get-out-the-vote efforts to say no to a candidate who demands lawn signs in order to boost his margins. The silver lining is that the study suggests that the much-easier distribution of lawn signs in random public places is more effective than finding supporters and plunking signs in their yards.

But when have candidates ever sat down and considered the political science before making judgment calls in close races? Superstition dictates lawn signs, and candidates are the ones raising the money and putting their name on the ballot. The study would essentially have had to demonstrate that candidates who used them lost before a candidate would have second thoughts about the efficacy of lawn signs. And even then, he'd probably still buy them.

Tuesday, June 12, 2018

It's that time again!

Yes, they are still counting votes from the primary election, but if you are planning to run in the fall for a non-partisan seat on a local board or Council, now's the time to start. Gathering endorsements, making phone calls for fundraising. Hiring a consultant and getting your website up. Don't wait until July. In fact, snag a slot in the July 4th parade with your group of friends and a few signs even if they're homemade. Let people know you are running.

Start thinking about your issues, your bio, and planning that 200 word campaign statement. Assemble a small "Kitchen cabinet" to help you with issues and tasks that need to get done, like setting up houseparties, ordering walk and phone lists, interviewing consultants, a treasurer and maybe a fundraiser. You want to be organized, have a short timely message and enough funds to send out some mail, buy a few house signs and have a good handout to take with you to events and hand out at voters' homes once you hit the campaign trail in earnest.

Eat light but do go for the brain food.Here's a quick and tasty recipe:

Yummy salmon tostada

  • 8 6-inch corn tortillas
  • Canola oil cooking spray
  • 1 6- to 7-ounce can boneless, skinless wild Alaskan salmon, drained
  • 1 avocado, diced
  • 2 tablespoons minced pickled jalapeños, plus 2 tablespoons pickling juice from the jar, divided
  • 2 cups coleslaw mix (see Tip) or shredded cabbage
  • 2 tablespoons chopped cilantro
  • 1 15-ounce can black beans, rinsed
  • 3 tablespoons reduced-fat sour cream
  • 2 tablespoons prepared salsa
  • 2 scallions, chopped
  • Lime wedges (optional)
  •  

 Preparation
  1. Position racks in upper and lower thirds of the oven; preheat to 375°F.
  2. Coat tortillas on both sides with cooking spray. Place on 2 baking sheets. Bake, turning once, until light brown, 12 to 14 minutes.
  3. Combine salmon, avocado and jalapenos in a bowl. Combine cabbage, cilantro and the pickling juice in another bowl. Process black beans, sour cream, salsa and scallions in a food processor until smooth. Transfer to a microwave-safe bowl. Cover and microwave on High until hot, about 2 minutes.
  4. To assemble tostadas, spread each tortilla with some bean mixture and some salmon mixture and top with the cabbage salad. Serve with lime wedges, if desired.

    Thursday, June 7, 2018

    Yes, Virginia, your Vote DOES Count!

    It's Election night. I'm signing people in at our County Dem headquarters, where people have gathered to watch election results and share wine and snacks. A woman who has been volunteering to make out of district calls to help Democrats in red districts comes over to chat. "I live in [large town in our County]," she says, a town which has had a very contentious race between a long time County Supervisor and someone trying to unseat her. "But I didn't vote," she goes on. "I voted in all the other races, but I could not decide who to believe when it came to the Supervisor race."

    This race has been in the paper for weeks, months. The candidates have been walking precincts, sending brochures, attending debates and forums all winter and spring. The Democrats endorsed the incumbent. How could she not know who she wanted to vote for?

    It turns out she was what's known as a "confidential voter," who doesn't show up on the voter roles because of some issue of safety, say a stalker, or a bad domestic violence situation you are escaping from. So she received none of the usual materials from candidates.

    However, she is on our Democratic email list. She can read the local press. She can attend candidate events, and she could have asked friends, neighbors, or others she trusted. Instead she saw only TV ads, and decided she trusted neither candidate. My mind was exploding. This promises to be a close race. How could an otherwise educated, seemingly informed and involved person, be so unconcerned about the one race that will actually affect her life?

    Votes are still being counted all over California which allows vote by mail ballots to be postmarked on Election Day so long as they arrive within three days. But it looks to be a low turn-out election, even with all the hype about the possibility of "a big blue wave." We are heartened that in some red districts, Democrats are in second place in some contests for Congress, but that will mean we have to get out our voters in November in big numbers to have a chance.

    This woman will help out with that effort. She is very concerned that we take back the house. Why oh why then, I  think, does she not even bother to learn about what's happening in her own back yard? elections have been won and lost by a single vote. Your vote does count. When will people get it?